Markets finally gave into the hands of the bears. Sentiment all of a sudden turned for the worse. Nifty cracked over 3.5% for the week. Sensex is down over 1400 points. For reasons one can think of this correction was coming. However the manner in which it has come is shocking for many. Midcap/Smallcap have take a beating that was not envisaged. Some of the names have fallen 15-20% in a week. Results seasons continue unwind. Banking space – BoB/SBI continue to bleed with no improvement in NPAs and slippages. In the auto space Tata Motors came out with disappointing numbers and got punished.
Technically we has mentioned 9900 as critical support. This broke effortlessly. 9800 broke as effortlessly and Nifty tested 9700. Put writers had to unwind a lot of positions. Call writing increased and now 10k becomes a hurdle – one that will not be crossed with ease. The intermediate bottom at 9450-9500 will be tested. A very short-term dead cat bounce or some consolidation can be expected.
Fundamentally speaking markets after this brutal fall is still overbought. This can be the starting of a deeper correction. Too early to call bottom but there is enough steam on the way down. SEBI order, N. Korea war, China etc are all excuses and post-facto events. At this juncture we are at a crossroads. Results are not supporting valuations and one will see its consequences.
Globally markets mirrored one another. Dow fell considerably before stabilizing on Friday. Global situation had always been soft. May be the August fallacy plays out and world over the markets fall another 3-5%. Geopolitical tensions are prevalent. They were earlier as well and are still today. The markets may have a reason to fall now.
As one would expect IT should do okay in this bloodbath. Pharma is on a new low – keep your eyes open for capitulation and pain to do some bottom fishing. Strongest sectors is the metals and commodity space. Watch for some of the front line names in that sector as they will lead the recovery. In the after math of this correction – remember – good quality will always bounce back.