Markets Sentiment_24.02.2018

Markets staged a smart comeback from the start of this week. Nifty tested the 10300 level and closed smartly near 10500. Week on week close although flat – sentiment improved owing to Friday rally. Caution is still the word on the street. Small and mid caps continue to under-perform. PNB scam is still being digested as the nation comes to senses after the recent jolt. Banks are still the focus. Sentiment remains soured as far as bulls are concerned. FII is still a regular seller in our markets. DII keeps absorbing the selling.

Technically Nifty is long way away from being safe. This is the longest period in recent past it has failed to re-conquer 50d EMA. 10550 will be key along with its last high 10600. It is nearing the supply zone. Sell on rally will still be the catch word as long as 10600-650 is not covered. On the down side the line of last support clearly stands at 10300-250. Below this further selling can be expected. Starting of the new F&O series has been on the lighter note as well.

Fundamentals have not changed. Some green shots here and there but still market is pricing a growth which has not come. Correction has been deeper in some stocks which may have provided good openings. Over all sense is still overvaluation. At north of 25x PE future returns have not been that great historically. Hence a bit of caution is still advised.

Sector speak – Keep an eye on Pharma stocks. The index has shown good bounce near its last support. Nifty pharma can scale another 5% if the lows of last week hold. As expected NIFTY IT continues to do well. Can see some minor pull back – however is strongest of the lot. Keep an eye on its constituents.

Markets Weekly Sentiment_17.02.2018

Markets had a flat week closing wise. There was quite some action during the week price wise. Nifty gave up the 10600 levels very easily to close near last weeks close of 10450 levels. Sentiment is hit across the street. PNB scam has led to an over all pessimism and uncertainty is back. This can be seen with the price action in PNB itself. Players are still not confirmed how deep this scam will be and what skeletons will tumble from the closet. Having said that fear has definitely gripped the market participants. Caution has been over played. Mid and Small caps have resumed their downwards movement.

Technically looking, Nifty did not scale back its 50D EMA around 10600. It chose to fall back from those exact levels. The downward play is open till 10000 should the last lows of 10270 fail to hold. It will be a classic test of recent lows before market is sure what it can hold. If 10300 gives way another slide of 5% cannot be ruled out. On the upside 10600 is the level to watch out for positional traders. 10000 remains the ultimate test. It is also the 50W EMA and 200D EMA. Lot of smart money will be watching these levels in the days and weeks to come.

Fundamentally we have not moved a needle. Although some consolidation is welcomed. Multiples are still stretched beyond historical averages. P/Es still above 25x after topping out at 27-28x in January. Things are still very overvalued and a further fall cannot be ruled out. A black swan can make the pain even more obvious and may hurt sentiment further. Caution is advised.

Sector speak – IT is a smart sector in times of volatility. It can be a good place to hide. Stocks would be relatively stable. NIFTY IT index has corrected and can be poised for a decent upmove. Metals are looking unstable. NIFTY METALS in on shaky grounds. If it does not take out its recent highs the sector will be badly hit. A revisit to 3500 is not ruled out. NIFTY BANK stands at a very critical levels of 25000.  It was the last top to be broken. Some demand is likely to enter – having said that it is a scam struck sector. Catching a falling knife is not advised. Watch for 25000 and how the index behaves around these levels.

Gold is on Verge of Breaking Out

Gold is on Verge of Breaking Out

Gold rally continue for the third month to touch high of 1344.81 before settling at 1331.84. The weakness in dollar against major currency drives safe haven demand in gold. Also, crash in crypto currencies related fund moved to gold. Gold has jumped 2.2% this year, touching the highest price in four months, as the dollar fell, Chinese consumers stocked up for the Lunar New Year and signs of global inflation picked up.

Global holdings in gold exchange-traded funds soared to the highest level since 2013 as investors got behind a rally in the metal. Holdings in gold exchange traded funds jump 13.7 tons, most since September, the total assets climb to 2241.2 tons.

Hedge fund managers boost net bullish bets on gold as they have added 5927 net long positions to 203967 contracts as per the weekly CFTC data on futures and options shows.

The uncertainty over US government shutdown may further give boost to precious metal rally.

At domestic front, gold imports for the December month rose 53 per cent to 846 tonnes last year on strong domestic demand and lower global prices, according to MMTC-PAMP India.  In December 2017 alone, gold imports rose to 70 tonnes from 49 tonnes in the year-ago period.

Technically, gold is on verge of breakout above $1370/oz. The sustainable break out above said level will open higher side up to $1630/oz. while downside support has been seen around $1220/oz. At domestic front strength in rupee may restrict some of the gains but the view remains same. Domestic gold price likely to touch all-time high to Rs. 35000 within 2 year once it starts trading above Rs.30450 per 10 grams.   The near term support remains around Rs. 28500 per 10 grams.

Forthcoming_IPO_ Apollo Micro Systems Limited

Apollo Micro Systems Limited IPO Detail

Issue Detail:

Issue Open Date

Jan  10th , 2018 Price Band :

Rs 270 – Rs 275

 

Issue Open Date

Jan 12th , 2018 Minimum Bid Qty :

50

 

Discount of Rs 12 is offered to RII and Employee.

Issue Structure: 50% QIB, 15% NII, and 35% Retail.

Objective :

The objects of the issue are:
1. To meet additional working capital requirement of the Company
2. General corporate purposes

 Business Description :

 Incorporated in 1997, Apollo Micro Systems Limited is Hyderabad based company engaged in the business of electronic, electro-mechanical, engineering designs, manufacturing and supply. Company design, develop and sell high-performance, mission and time critical solutions to Defense, Space and Home Land Security for Ministry of Defense, government controlled public sector undertakings and private sectors.

Apollo Micro Systems offers custom built COTS (Commercially off-the shelf) solutions based on specific requirements to defense and space customers. Company has participated in several Indigenous Missile programs, underwater electronic warfare, underwater missiles, surface to air missiles, nuclear missile programs, surface to surface missile programs, indigenous submarine programs UAV’s long and short endurance, ships, space programs.

Company’s manufacturing facility is located at Hyderabad.

Company Promoters:

Mr. Karunakar Reddy Baddam is the promoter of the company.

Company Financials:

Particulars For the year/period ended (in Rs. million)
 

31-Mar-17

31-Mar-16 31-Mar-15 31-Mar-14

31-Mar-13

 

Total Assets

2,458.57 2,029.58 1,347.19 849.16

458.1

 

Total Revenue

2,117.99 1,595.32 1,087.68 728.82

374.58

 
Profit After Tax 185.71 100.01 74.48 53.34

29.59

 

Company Contact Information :

Apollo Micro Systems Limited
Plot No 128/A, Road No. 12,
BEL Road, IDA Mallapur, Uppal Mandal,
Hyderabad– 500 076
Phone: +91 40 2716 7000
Fax: +91 40 2715 0820
Email: cs@apollo-micro.com
Website: http://apollo-micro.com/

IPO Registrar :

Bigshare Services Pvt. Ltd

E-2 & 3,

Ansa Industrial Estate, Saki-Vihar Road,

Sakinaka, Andheri(E), Mumbai – 400 072

Phone: 91-22-40430200

Fax: 91-22-2847 5207

Email: ipo@bigshareonline.com

Website: http://www.bigshareonline.com

IPO Lead Manager(s) :

  • Aryaman Financial Services limited

Markets Sentiment_06.01.2018

Markets started the year on a very tepid note. For the first few sessions it gave up a lot of ground. Low volumes and holiday season did not see much action. Sentiment although was buoyant owing to global conditions. Almost all global markets are at record highs. There is a global wave of bull run that has gripped all markets. Dow topped 25k, Nasdaq 7k. In Asia Nikkei scaled 1k points in 2 days. Hong Kong was at multi-decade high. Nifty rose a percent point in the week gone by. Sentiment in our own market is tepid but bullish. Close was very strong. A day’s correction was bought into. Midcaps are again on steroids.

Technically speaking Nifty is in a make or break level. If this close of 10550+ is sustained on a daily basis next week, we can expect a runaway gap till about 10600-700. There will be short covering and squeezing. Very short-term support stands at 10480. A trade below this level in the very short-term can drag the Nifty lower. A sustained close above 10550 will lead to the short-term floor shifting from 10k to 10.5k! Keep an eye on the volumes as they are bound to pick up next week as all participants become fully active.

Fundamentally multiples are still and continue to remain stretched. P/E. P/Bv you name them are at historical highs. There are no negative news flows. It almost seems to complacent the investing environment. One has to be very cautious in trading in the current environment. Some exogenous shock can drag the market lower. The only question is when? Having said that structural bull market remains intact. A healthy correction is still to be seen.

Sector Speak – Metals will continue their bull run. Keep an eye on metal stocks. Nifty Metals should continue to hit new highs. Nifty IT index is at a pivotal level. An upward break is expected as momentum is on the bull side. Keep an eye on Infosys. Nifty Bank continues to be weak. Unless a clean break above 26k is seen, avoid the stocks.

Weekly Markets Sentiment_31.12.2017

Markets closed mildly in the positive zone on the last trading day of the year. Sentiment is buoyant. Nifty and Sensex both closed near all time highs. Elections and all major news flow were out the way and bulls had the upper hand through out the FII holiday season. It will be interesting to see at the dawn of the new year how markets perform going into the crucial January month.

Technically speaking, Nifty is near critical levels. 10500 needs to be broken decisively. Nifty is hovering near the zone but in unable to penetrate it. Twice has the index reversed from that area. Momentum seems to be indicating that it will break out and make a new high. Fatigue is seen although near the congestion zone. 10k becomes a rock solid intermediate support in the future. A decisive close and break out of 10550 will make a new bottom for the market. Base will shift a whopping 500 points upwards. Short term the bulls have some steam left. 10470 seems to be a good support.

Fundamentally, we are still in extremely overbought zone. Multiples are stretched and valuations in some stocks looks frothy. Such circumstances call for extreme caution in asset allocation. Forced buying of stocks is a strict no. Sitting on cash seems a smart choice. At historical high valuations one needs to wait for results and then take a deep dive.  With results season underway it will be interesting to see where the markets head.

Sector watch – Metals is the strongest bet out there. Nifty metals after a steep correction is bound to hit new highs. Keep a watch on its constituents. Bank is a laggard. Nifty bank is still way below it’s all time high. This divergence is something market players are keeping a tab on. Nifty IT seems to have a clean break. Keep an eye on this space as some sparks are bound to fly.

Markets Weekly Sentiment_16.12.2017

Markets were volatile. Sentiment was affected due to the ongoing Gujarat election. During the few days Nifty managed to recover strongly and close above 10300. As exit polls were due to come, market participants were on a wait and watch mode. The Gujarat election has been a sentiment driver from the past few weeks. A gap up on Friday led to a positive approach. Exit polls indicate that BJP should sail through. It will be a down to the wire scenario and Monday is likely to be the D-day for the near term trend in the markets.

Technically speaking Nifty is above last top of 10330. It has closed mildly above that. Immediate resistance stands at 10400 and a trend reversal point is 10500. On the lower side 10200 is the 50 day EMA, however that will not hold any relevance in the volatility give Monday’s outcome. 10150 should provide a near term support, which if breached can take Nifty towards 10000.

Fundamentally, multiples are elevated. Not a good time to be picking the index. Having said that sentiment and liquidity can over power the fundamentals for a very long time. FII’s have continued to pull out money. DII’s are still partying with retail SIPs. A 130+ seats victory for BJP will give fuel to the rally all bulls will be waiting for. It will be a sentiment driven market next week.

US closed with mildly a positive bias. FED, on expected lines, increased the interest rates. Dow continues to climb impossible levels and sits pretty at all time highs. Cryptomania continues and that segment is ripe for a scam or a bubble. Globally it seems crypto currencies are out playing all other asset classes.

Sector watch – Metals space should heat up. Watch out for its constituents as Nifty metal may begin a short-term up move towards it’s all time high.

Weekly Markets Sentiment_09.11.2017

Markets had a volatile week. Falling for 3 days in a row, markets came back strongly on Thursday & Friday. Nifty hit a low of 10033 before bouncing back. Sentiment was hit hard by the election and global sell off. Gujarat goes into election mode. It will be worth seeing the results as the expectations and consensus is split wide open. Due to the confused sentiment markets behaved the same way. Another non event that markets needed to let go was the RBI policy. No rate change and no hawkish comments. Upward risk to inflation kept policy makers busy.

Technically speaking Nifty has covered a lot of ground from the lows. It breached previous supports and was dangerously lurking below previous lows of 10080. Next stop given the momentum can be 10330 before a breather can be expected. Pull back has been strong. Nifty needs a weekly close above 10409 to reverse the weekly down trend of lower lows and lower highs. This weeks low of 10033 becomes a good support.

Fundamentals are unfazed. Multiples continue to remain elevated. What has changed over the last two weeks is FII’s stance. Cash and future both have been sold heavily. As a matter of fact FII’s are net short the market. DII’s on the other hand continue to pour in money. It will be crucial to get Gujarat elections out-of-the-way before any meaningful things can be plotted.

Globally, the DOW and US markets held up well. Asian selling for now has stopped. Sentiment has stabilized. FED in all likely hood is bound to raise the interest rates and that seems to be sinking into the prices. Tech stocks are beginning to look rocky. They may be topping out. After almost a fabulous run most part of 2017 – the ‘December anomaly”  is expected to play out.

Sector speak – Keep an eye of metal stocks. Nifty metal has seen a 10% correction. Should the recent lows of 3520 hold we can see a revival of the bullish trend. Also Nifty Infra looks promising post the recent moves. Keep an eye of Infra stocks for revival.

Ongoing SME IPO_ Dynamic Cables Limited

SME IPO : Dynamic Cables Limited

Issue Detailes:

Issue Opens 4-Dec-17
Issue Closes 6-Dec-17
Issue Price 40
Lot Size 3000
Issue Size 23.376 Cr
Lead Manager Hem Securities Limited
Registrar Bigshare Services Pvt Ltd
Platform BSE SME

Registered Office:

F-260, Road No. 13 VKI Area, Jaipur, Rajasthan 302013 India

Promoters:

  1. MR. RAHUL MANGAL
  2. MR. ASHISH MANGAL

Profile of the Company:

Our Company, Dynamic Cables Private Limited was incorporated in April 03, 2007 by conversion of partnership firm “M/s Ashish Fluxes and Chemicals with its branch M/s Dynamic Engineer” under part IX of Companies Act, 1956. Pursuant to the conversion from private limited company to public limited company, our name was changed to “Dynamic Cables Limited” vide fresh certificate of incorporation dated August 22, 2017 received from the Registrar of Companies, Rajasthan, Jaipur. We are engaged in manufacturing of Cables and Conductors which widely include manufacturing of Low Voltage and HighVoltage Power Cables, Aerial Bunched Cables, All Aluminium Conductor (A.A.C.), All Aluminium Alloy Conductor (A.A.A.C.), Aluminium conductor steel reinforced (A.C.S.R.) Conductors and Service Drop Cables used for transmission and distribution of Electricity. Our manufacturing facilities are distributed in three units located in Jaipur, Rajasthan, with following scope of activities,
viz:
 Unit I – located at: F-259 & F-260, Road No. 13 VKI Area Jaipur 302013, Rajasthan, India
 Unit II – located at: B-308, Road No. 16, VKI Area, Jaipur 302013, Rajasthan
 Unit III – located at: H-581-A to H-592-A & H1 -601 (B), Road No. 6, VKI Area, Jaipur 302013, Rajasthan

Objects Of the Company:

  1. To Meet Working Capital requirements
  2. To Meet General Corporate Expenses
  3. To Meet Issue Expenses

Financials:

30-06-2017 16-17 15-16 14-15 13-14 12-13
total Assets 21259.27 17594.11 16146.08 13318.98 10269.43 9380.19
tottal reveue 8884.96 30214.63 26979.93 26211.82 19916.98 17736.48
PAT 204.84 792.04 679.71 253.75 157.08 52.03
DEBT 8059.15 5306.02 6605.31 2988.64 2192.88 2071.49

 

EPS : 5.11

P/E : 7.83

RoNW : 19.18%

NAV/share : 29.37

 

Weekly Market Sentiment_02.12.2017

Markets had a turbulent week. Sentiment was soured by the sell off. Nifty cracked over 300 points. Expiry week did not live up to any bullish expectations. Starting off from Korea and leading to global FII sell off markets took a 2.5% hit. GDP numbers were as expected. 6.3% growth came in after a wait of nearly 5 quarters. Fiscal deficit although is likely to surpass government annual target. Mid-caps fought well although gave up finally in the Friday sell off.

Technically, Nifty is at pivotal support. Last low of 10094 is going to be tested. Closing has come below 50d EMA around 10200. This is a negative sign. One has to watch Monday’s action. 10400 & 10500 are the levels to cross for any upmove to happen. On the hourly charts, Nifty looks a bit oversold. A short-term bounce cannot be ruled out next week. If sentiments do not degrade further, Nifty can reclaim 10200 levels by next week.

Fundamentally, a 2-3% correction does not mean anything. Barely it will bring down the multiples. Nifty is still around peak valuations. Historically high valuations do not bode well. Exogenous shocks are always a threat and even minor dents in sentiment can send markets for a toss. GDP number was encouraging. Growth reversed after 5 quarters of decline. Not much can be read of it, but would be worthy if it sustains for a couple of more quarters. With Gujarat elections coming markets will be on its toes.

Globally, decoupling was witnessed. Dow was up almost 600 points, NASDAQ cracked by 1-2% and rest of the world was not even close to matching US stock market performance. Towards the end of the week, impeachment news soured the sentiment. However, the DOW recovered almost all of its lost 300 points. FED policy, Trumpeachment will keep US markets volatile. Asia does not look good either. Sell off in Heng Seng market coupled with FII selling across Asia has led to subdued prices.

Sector views – Nifty Bank is right at is 50D EMA and double top support at 25100-200 zone. Keep an eye on its constituents. This will be the make or break sector. Nifty Energy is showing similar patterns to that of Nifty Bank. It is likely to take support and may be even reverse. All major indices are near critical short-term supports. A break of another 0.5-1% of these supports will create a further sell off. One has to trade the bounce with caution.