Tag: USDINR

Currency Insight

Sheetal

Dollar edges up near 2-1/2-month high ahead of Fed outcome

The dollar edged closer to a 2-1/2-month high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as traders awaited clues from the Federal Reserve about the timing of a U.S. interest rate increase.

A rate hike at the Fed’s two-day policy meeting which ends later on Wednesday is virtually priced out due to underlying concerns over a slowdown in China and the broader impact on global growth.

But many investors still expect the Fed to indicate that interest rates could rise as early as December. The index, which gauges the greenback against six rival currencies, stood at 96.958 , up about 0.1 percent from late U.S. trade and not far from a 2 1/2-month peak of 97.201 scaled on Friday.

Europe’s Quiet Currency War Besets Nations Losing Inflation Grip

From Stockholm, where the Riksbank will publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting on Tuesday, to Prague, Copenhagen and Zurich, officials in countries circling the currency bloc are waiting for the European Central Bank president to say next month whether he’ll expand stimulus. Only then will it be clear whether they’ll need to retaliate with more asset purchases, rate cuts and currency interventions of their own to dig in against imported disinflation.

Draghi’s bonanza of cheap cash is depressing financial returns in the euro area and driving investment flows into neighboring countries, pushing up their currencies and defeating their efforts to hit their own inflation targets. Looser monetary policy is in the cards even in countries where economic growth is strong and asset markets are overheating.

China welcomes IMF backing to make yuan world reserve currency

China on Saturday welcomed backing from IMF experts that the yuan should be included in its reserve currencies, saying the move would strengthen the world’s financial system.

Now the world’s second-largest economy, China asked last year for the yuan to be added to the elite basket of SDR currencies, but until recently it was considered too tightly controlled to qualify.

Important events and their explanation:

 

Time ( IST) Currency Economic Data Actual Expectation
7:00pm USD CPI m/m 0.20% -0.20%
USD Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20%
7:45pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 77.50% 77.50%
USD Industrial Production m/m 0.10% -0.20%
17th-19th USD Mortgage Delinquencies 5.30%

 

Explanation:- Out of these above data US CPI  may decide the medium term trend of the price USD.  Any positive news may be positive for the USD

Quick Glance :

 

Instrument Price %Chg Volume OI
USD/INR 66.00 0.17 788526 960103
EUR/INR 70.86 -0.82 37048 48836
GBP/INR 100.20 0.07 21059 41217
JPY/INR 53.70 -0.64 7908 15311

 

Technical touch :

EURINR

FOREX EURINR_Daily_1Year

As seen pair is trading near its crucial support levels which is at 70.56 levels. Hence we assume any breakout below 70.50 may further weaken the Euro till 70.20 levels and upside strong resistance at 71.40 levels.

 

Currency Insight

Sheetal

Dollar edges up near 2-1/2-month high ahead of Fed outcome

The dollar edged closer to a 2-1/2-month high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as traders awaited clues from the Federal Reserve about the timing of a U.S. interest rate increase.

A rate hike at the Fed’s two-day policy meeting which ends later on Wednesday is virtually priced out due to underlying concerns over a slowdown in China and the broader impact on global growth.

But many investors still expect the Fed to indicate that interest rates could rise as early as December. The index, which gauges the greenback against six rival currencies, stood at 96.958 , up about 0.1 percent from late U.S. trade and not far from a 2 1/2-month peak of 97.201 scaled on Friday.

Indian rupee ends at one-month low against US dollar, down 32 paise at 65.59

The rupee plunged by 32 paise against the US dollar to one-month low of 65.59 on fresh demand for the American currency from banks and importers amid persistent fall in equity markets coupled with strong foreign capital outflows.

 

The domestic unit opened lower at 65.39 as against last Friday’s level of 65.27 at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (forex) market and dropped further to 65.62 before ending at one-month low of 65.59, showing a loss of 32 paise or 0.49 per cent.

Sterling trades above $1.52, but lags euro on soft UK data

Sterling rose 0.4 percent against a struggling dollar on Tuesday, as investors fretted about when the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates amid growing doubts over a global recovery.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecasts for a second time this year on Tuesday, citing weak commodity prices and a slowdown in China and said policies aimed at increasing demand were needed.

Important events and their explanation:
Time ( IST) Currency Economic Data Actual Expectation Previous
USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
7:00pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.20% 0.00%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 179K 142K
USD Unemployment Rate 5.00% 5.10%

 

Quick Glance :
Instrument Price %Chg Volume OI
USD/INR 65.48 0.17 788526 960103
EUR/INR 71.56 -0.82 37048 48836
GBP/INR 100.92 0.07 21059 41217
JPY/INR 54.01 -0.64 7908 15311

 

Technical touch :

FOREX USDINR_Weekly_3Year

We assume USD might depreciate and INR till 65.50

 

Currency Insight

Sheetal

Dollar edges up near 2-1/2-month high ahead of Fed outcome

The dollar edged closer to a 2-1/2-month high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as traders awaited clues from the Federal Reserve about the timing of a U.S. interest rate increase.

A rate hike at the Fed’s two-day policy meeting which ends later on Wednesday is virtually priced out due to underlying concerns over a slowdown in China and the broader impact on global growth.

But many investors still expect the Fed to indicate that interest rates could rise as early as December. The index, which gauges the greenback against six rival currencies, stood at 96.958 , up about 0.1 percent from late U.S. trade and not far from a 2 1/2-month peak of 97.201 scaled on Friday.

Indian rupee ends at one-month low against US dollar, down 32 paise at 65.59

The rupee plunged by 32 paise against the US dollar to one-month low of 65.59 on fresh demand for the American currency from banks and importers amid persistent fall in equity markets coupled with strong foreign capital outflows.

 

The domestic unit opened lower at 65.39 as against last Friday’s level of 65.27 at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (forex) market and dropped further to 65.62 before ending at one-month low of 65.59, showing a loss of 32 paise or 0.49 per cent.

Sterling trades above $1.52, but lags euro on soft UK data

Sterling rose 0.4 percent against a struggling dollar on Tuesday, as investors fretted about when the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates amid growing doubts over a global recovery.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecasts for a second time this year on Tuesday, citing weak commodity prices and a slowdown in China and said policies aimed at increasing demand were needed.

Important events and their explanation:
Time ( IST) Currency Economic Data Actual Expectation Previous
1:00am USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
5:20am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
6:00am USD FOMC Member Fischer Speaks
7:00pm USD Unemployment Claims 263K 260K
USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
USD Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q 0.10% 3.30%
USD Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q 2.20% -1.40%
7:40pm USD FOMC Member Fischer Speaks

 

Explanation:- Market is heading towards one of the most crucial events of the weeks, Unemployment claims and Non farm we actual data might come negative for the USD.

Quick Glance :
Instrument Price %Chg Volume OI
USD/INR 65.48 0.17 788526 960103
EUR/INR 71.56 -0.82 37048 48836
GBP/INR 100.92 0.07 21059 41217
JPY/INR 54.01 -0.64 7908 15311

 

Technical touch :

USDINR

FOREX USDINR_Daily_1Year

As seen pair has pierced its prolonged Ascending triangle and trading above crucial 65.20 levels.

After a surprise move by the Chinese banks rupee depreciated and touched 64.80 levels.  We assume rupee to form a minor resistance at 65.60 levels.

Once can go long TILL 65.70 LEVELS.

Currency Insight

Sheetal

China gives currency largest boost in a decade

China on Monday raised the daily reference rate for its yuan currency by the largest margin in a decade, officials and reports said, just three months after a surprise devaluation sent shockwaves through global markets.

The central People’s Bank of China adjusted the central rate of the yuan — also known as the renminbi (RMB) — upwards by 0.54 percent against the US dollar, according to a statement.

China now allows the currency to trade up or down two percent from the centrally set daily rate on the domestic foreign exchange market.

EUR/USD off lows but below 1.10

The euro lost ground on Wednesday as data showing euro zone inflation dipped back into negative territory in September fuelled expectations the European Central Bank will expand or extend its asset purchase programme.

The euro fell 0.4 percent to $1.1205, and was down 0.7 percent against the British pound, although it remained on track for a quarterly gain against the dollar.

“A weak number was expected and bolsters expectations that the ECB may have to expand its asset purchase programme from the 60-billion-euros-a-month to something larger, perhaps by year-end,” said Richard Falkenhall, currency strategist at SEB.

“That is negative for the euro, but a lot depends on how stock markets behave. If stocks drop, then the euro is likely to be supported as they are going in opposite ways.”.

Sterling trades above $1.52, but lags euro on soft UK data

Sterling rose 0.4 percent against a struggling dollar on Tuesday, as investors fretted about when the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates amid growing doubts over a global recovery.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecasts for a second time this year on Tuesday, citing weak commodity prices and a slowdown in China and said policies aimed at increasing demand were needed.

Important events and their explanation:
Time ( IST) Currency Economic Data Actual Expectation Previous
12:30am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks      
7:15am CNY Caixin Services PMI     50.5
4th-9th GBP Halifax HPI m/m   0.70% -0.90%
2:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks      
3:00pm GBP Services PMI   54.6 53.3
4:00pm USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks      
6:45pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change   183K 200K
7:00pm USD Trade Balance   -42.7B -48.3B
8:30pm USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies      
  USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI   56.6 56.9
9:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories   2.5M 3.4M

 

Explanation:- Market may pay more attention to Fed Yellen testify and ISM Non manufacturing index. We assume above data to come as per the expectation which might be negative for the USD.

Quick Glance :
Instrument Price %Chg Volume OI
USD/INR 65.68 0.17 788526 960103
EUR/INR 72.09 -0.82 37048 48836
GBP/INR 101.23 0.07 21059 41217
JPY/INR 54.39 -0.64 7908 15311

 

Technical touch :

FOREX USDINR_Daily_1Year

Pair is trading near crucial resistance area. Any closing above 65.70 may further push the pair till 65.90 levels. Below this may fall till 65.40 levels.

 

 

Currency Insight

Sheetal

Dollar edges up near 2-1/2-month high ahead of Fed outcome

The dollar edged closer to a 2-1/2-month high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as traders awaited clues from the Federal Reserve about the timing of a U.S. interest rate increase.

A rate hike at the Fed’s two-day policy meeting which ends later on Wednesday is virtually priced out due to underlying concerns over a slowdown in China and the broader impact on global growth.

But many investors still expect the Fed to indicate that interest rates could rise as early as December. The index, which gauges the greenback against six rival currencies, stood at 96.958 , up about 0.1 percent from late U.S. trade and not far from a 2 1/2-month peak of 97.201 scaled on Friday.

Sterling hits 8-month low vs euro as consumer prices fall

The euro lost ground on Wednesday as data showing euro zone inflation dipped back into negative territory in September fuelled expectations the European Central Bank will expand or extend its asset purchase programme.

The euro fell 0.4 percent to $1.1205, and was down 0.7 percent against the British pound, although it remained on track for a quarterly gain against the dollar.

“A weak number was expected and bolsters expectations that the ECB may have to expand its asset purchase programme from the 60-billion-euros-a-month to something larger, perhaps by year-end,” said Richard Falkenhall, currency strategist at SEB.

“That is negative for the euro, but a lot depends on how stock markets behave. If stocks drop, then the euro is likely to be supported as they are going in opposite ways.”.

Sterling trades above $1.52, but lags euro on soft UK data

Sterling rose 0.4 percent against a struggling dollar on Tuesday, as investors fretted about when the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates amid growing doubts over a global recovery.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecasts for a second time this year on Tuesday, citing weak commodity prices and a slowdown in China and said policies aimed at increasing demand were needed.

Important events and their explanation:
Time ( IST) Currency Economic Data Actual Expectation Previous
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m -0.10% -0.20%
1:30pm EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y -0.60% -0.90%
2:25pm EUR German Unemployment Change -4K 2K
3:00pm GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.4B 4.3B
6:00pm USD Advance GDP q/q 1.60% 3.90%
USD Unemployment Claims 264K 259K
USD Advance GDP Price Index q/q 1.50% 2.10%
6:40pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
7:30pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m 1.10% -1.40%

 

Explanation:- Out of the above mentioned data , Market may react more on US unemployment numbers and Pending home sales. We assume both the data will come as per the expectations, hence this would be neutral for the USD. All eyes are on the upcoming FOMC statement.

Quick Glance :
Instrument Price %Chg Volume OI
USD/INR 64.92 0.17 788526 960103
EUR/INR 71.82 -0.82 37048 48836
GBP/INR 99.25 0.07 21059 41217
JPY/INR 53.93 -0.64 7908 15311

 

Technical touch :

 

Dollar Index

usd\

Today we will discuss INR movement based on Dollar index. As seen Dollar index is forming a perfect bullish pattern on its weekly chart, and touched its above falling resistance line. We assume dollar index might fall in the coming days near its base. This would be positive for the INR for few trading sessions. Range :- 64.88-65.20

 

Currency Insight

Sheetal

Safe-haven yen gains in cautious mood ahead of Fed

The safe-haven yen gained on Tuesday, hitting a seven-week high against the euro, as investors turned risk-averse before the start of a two-day meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Markets are pricing in only around a 7 percent chance of a U.S. rate hike this week, but they will be watching Fed Chair Janet Yellen closely for any clues to whether “lift-off” could come at its next meeting in December.

The yen had fallen last week, hitting a two-month low against the dollar after the European Central Bank said it was ready to loosen policy further and China cut interest rates again, fuelling speculation that the Bank of Japan could signal more easing at its meeting on Friday.

Euro sags as euro zone inflation turns negative in Sept

The euro lost ground on Wednesday as data showing euro zone inflation dipped back into negative territory in September fuelled expectations the European Central Bank will expand or extend its asset purchase programme.

The euro fell 0.4 percent to $1.1205, and was down 0.7 percent against the British pound, although it remained on track for a quarterly gain against the dollar.

“A weak number was expected and bolsters expectations that the ECB may have to expand its asset purchase programme from the 60-billion-euros-a-month to something larger, perhaps by year-end,” said Richard Falkenhall, currency strategist at SEB.

“That is negative for the euro, but a lot depends on how stock markets behave. If stocks drop, then the euro is likely to be supported as they are going in opposite ways.”.

Sterling trades above $1.52, but lags euro on soft UK data

Sterling rose 0.4 percent against a struggling dollar on Tuesday, as investors fretted about when the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates amid growing doubts over a global recovery.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecasts for a second time this year on Tuesday, citing weak commodity prices and a slowdown in China and said policies aimed at increasing demand were needed.

Important events and their explanation:

 

Time ( IST) Currency Economic Data Actual Expectation Previous
5:20am JPY Retail Sales y/y 0.40% 0.80%
6:00pm USD Goods Trade Balance -64.9B -67.2B
8:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 8.0M
11:30pm USD FOMC Statement
USD Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%

 

Explanation:-  All eyes are on the FOMC statement as there would be no change in the rate decision. But the important thing is Fed’s indication towards the  December 2015 meeting. China’s weak economy may hinder rate hike. Any dovish statement by the Fed would be negative for the dollar and positive for commodities.

Quick Glance :
Instrument Price %Chg Volume OI
USD/INR 64.98 0.17 788526 960103
EUR/INR 71.89 -0.82 37048 48836
GBP/INR 99.63 0.07 21059 41217
JPY/INR 0.5398 -0.64 7908 15311

 

Technical touch :

 

USDINR

FOREX USDINR_Daily_1Year

USDINR pair ended on a flat notes under 65.00 levels after a lackluster trade. As said previously, pucialair is trading at its crucial rising trendline resistance. Hence we advice to go long on dips near 64.80 levels till 65.34-80 targets.

 

Currency Insight

Sheetal

Dollar dips after rally but renewed risk appetite curbs fall

The dollar edged down from a 2-1/2-month high versus a basket of major currencies on Monday, although an increase in risk appetite in the wake of a new round of monetary easing from China limited the greenback’s losses.

Global stock markets rallied after China on Friday cut rates for the fifth time this year, just a day after the European Central Bank signalled that it was ready to increase the scale of its stimulus measures.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield rose nearly 6 basis points on Friday to a 2-week high as demand for safe havens waned, providing broad support for the dollar, whose index hit 97.201, the strongest since Aug. 12.

Euro hits two-month low vs dollar as ECB weighs

The euro on Friday continued its downward trend against the dollar following European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi’s comments a day earlier that signaled further monetary easing could be on dec for the euro zone.

Europe’s common currency checked in below $1.10, hitting a low against the dollar not seen since early August, and was down 3.05 percent versus the greenback for the week. It was the euro’s worst weekly fall since May.

Pound falls to 2-week lows vs. stronger dollar

The pound fell to two-week lows against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, as expectations for a U.S. rate hike in the coming months continued to lend broad support to the greenback.

GBP/USD hit 1.5385 during European morning trade, the pair’s lowest since May 8; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5415, sliding 0.36%. Cable was likely to find support at 1.5241, the low of May 8 and resistance at 1.5591, the high of May 20. The dollar was boosted after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated Friday that the bank still expects to start raising interest rates later in the year if the economy continues to improve as expected.

Important events and their explanation:
Time ( IST) Currency Economic Data Actual Expectation Previous
2:30pm EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 5.00% 4.80%
3:00pm GBP Prelim GDP q/q 0.60% 0.70%
6:00pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.00% -0.20%
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m -1.10% -2.30%
7:30pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 102.5 103

 

Explanation :- Out of the above mentioned data Consumer confidence is the most important data which may impact the USD mostly. We assume data might come negative which would be negative for USD.

Quick Glance :
Instrument Price %Chg Volume OI
USD/INR 64.92 0.17 788526 960103
EUR/INR 71.52 -0.82 37048 48836
GBP/INR 99.51 0.07 21059 41217
JPY/INR 53.64 -0.64 7908 15311

 

Technical touch :

USDINR

FOREX USDINR_Daily_1Year

Pair touched its crucial trendline support and formed an Hammer at daily pattern. We assume a bounce till 65.24 levels with a strong support at 64.70 levels.

 

Currency Insight

Sheetal

USD/JPY attempts tepid recovery in Asia, tests 124

The USD/JPY pair posed a minor recovery in the mid-Asian trades, as the USD bulls jumped back into the bids mainly driven by a short-covering rally after the major dropped sharply to fresh three-week lows on Wednesday following the release of FOMC minutes which surprised the markets to the downside..

Currently, the USD/JPY pair trades 0.11% higher at 123.94, finding it difficult to regain 124 handle. The dollar-yen pair keeps the bid tone intact in Asia, extending its recovery mode from 124.68 levels reached as the US dollar fell further in to losses after the Fed minutes turned out to be dovish, with no clear sign of an imminent September hike..

Dovish FOMC minutes keep USD undermined in Asia, UK Retail Sales eyed

Broad based US dollar weakness persists in Asia, lifting most G10 currencies across the FX board. The European currency was biggest gainer, sitting firmly above 1.11 barrier. Kiwi also climbed higher despite weak NZ fundamentals, while the gains in the Aussie were checked on tumbling Chinese equities amid no rescue effort seen from the Chinese authorities so far. USD/JPY is striving for 124 handle, staging a comeback from previous drop somewhat.

A relatively data-quiet Asian session, with most Asian currencies enjoying gains from broad based US dollar weakness induced by the dovish FOMC July 29 meeting. Despite, persisting greenback softness, USD/JPY tries to recover lost ground mainly driven profit-taking after the recent fall.

The minutes last night revealed that the policymakers at the Federal Reserve thought that the jobs market was near the point that would justify a rate hike, but the inflation side of the mandate remained a major obstacle for the first increase in benchmark interest rates in almost a decade.

Pound falls to 2-week lows vs. stronger dollar

The pound fell to two-week lows against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, as expectations for a U.S. rate hike in the coming months continued to lend broad support to the greenback.

GBP/USD hit 1.5385 during European morning trade, the pair’s lowest since May 8; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5415, sliding 0.36%. Cable was likely to find support at 1.5241, the low of May 8 and resistance at 1.5591, the high of May 20. The dollar was boosted after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated Friday that the bank still expects to start raising interest rates later in the year if the economy continues to improve as expected.

Important events and their explanation:
Time ( IST) Currency Economic Data Expectation Previous
12:15pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
2:00pm GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.40% -0.20%
6:00pm USD Unemployment Claims 272K 274K
7:30pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.45M 5.49M
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 6.9 5.7

 

Explanation:- Out of the above data’s US Unemployment claims and Exiting home sales would considered as the most important. We assume above data’t to come positive which would be positive for the USD.

Quick Glance :
Instrument Price %Chg Volume OI
USD/INR 65.24 0.17 788526 960103
EUR/INR 72,57 -0.82 37048 48836
GBP/INR 102.24 0.07 21059 41217
JPY/INR 52.63 -0.64 7908 15311
Technical touch :

FOREX USDINR_Daily_1Year

After China’s currency war, USDINR pair lost its sheen and traveled above 65.00 marks. Looking at the current macro picture we assume INR might further fall till 65.60 levels after fall till 65.10 levels.

 

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