2015, Negative year for the Major asset classes !!!

2015, Negative year for the Major asset classes !!!

There is a famous saying in portfolio Management theory that “don’t keep your eggs in one basket” means diversification is necessary for the better returns. But the year 2015, couldn’t work as per this theory. After a 3 consecutive positive returns since 2012, 2015 couldn’t work as per the expectations of many bigwigs. Indian equity market started with solid gains and climbed to all time high at 9150 levels but finally lost all gains and closed in red. On the other side because of the positive US data and economic number Indian rupee hammered and closed near its year’s high. But the one asset which hammered the most in the year 2015 was Commodity. Gold, Silver, Metal and Energies plunged and touched their lowest levels in last 8 years.

The depth of losses in equities and commodities is nowhere near as bad as in 2008; the correlation of declines highlights the challenge for money managers who seek to amplify returns by rotating among assets. Coming to the real asset investments, in the last one year investors would have earned a better rate of return if they had invested in a fixed deposit. The only investment class that stood as per the expectations of few investors is Bond market. All credit goes to the falling crude and commodities price which helped the Indian Central bank to reduce the interest rates. Commodities have fallen to a decade low as tepid global inflation dimmed the allure of precious metals, weak Chinese demand hurt raw-materials prices and a global supply glut sent crude oil tumbling.

Even India currency couldn’t take the advantage of falling price of falling interest rate parity between US and India. A record $8 billion flew out of the economy because of the better and safer return from the US bond markets. Indian rupee fell by ~ 9% where Equities gave negative return of negative ~2.5%.

But the main question is , were the smart players were not so smart this year?? Let’s discuss few minor but major events that could have saved many investors. Starting with the Positive economic and former US Fed governor Ben Bernanke’s word “US is in better shape and we would thinking of raising rates when the US unemployment rate would fall till 5%”. Simple lines could have helped many players. This is obvious that US was going to raised rates till the December 2015. Other important words by the Saudi king “We have enough cash reserves” means they are reading to incur losses to combat US rising crude reserve or in a simple words WAR OF EGO’s. Last but the not the least, China’s ghost city that was built few years back. This could have helped in understanding Commodity crisis in advance.

But few investors would have gained stupendously in few Mid Caps companies like Jet Airways and Spice jet by just applying common sense that falling crude having these stocks have strong negative correlation.

Hence it’s time to say goodbye to the year 2015 and welcoming 2016 with an open armed.


We wish a very happy and wealthy  New year to all !!



Morning Business News Round up_September 10, 2015

Morning Business News :

  • Wall St Jumps 2 Per Cent As China Gains Fuel Global Rally
  • Indian Economy Sees ‘Firming Growth’, Says OECD
  • EU Approves GE’s Alstom Buyout, With Conditions
  • India’s Diamond Industry Hit By Falling Chinese Demand
  • Hindustan Unilever To Sell Modern Bakery
  • BSE Streamlines OFS Bidding Process For Investors
  • Cabinet May Decide On FDI Route For White Label Atms
  • India To Grow At 7% In FY15, CAD To Remain Low: Moody’s
  • NPA Crisis To Continue For Another Two-Three Years: E&Y Survey
  • Raghuram Rajan Meets DEA Secy; Discusses Macro Issues
  • PM Asks Industry To Take Risk, Boost Investments; India Inc Wants Rate Cut
  • Govt Considers Safeguard Duty On Steel After Import Surge
  • Marble Importers-Hawala Operators Nexus Alerts Finmin
  • FTIL Case: CLB Adjourns Hearing To Sept 21
  • India Inc Pitches For Strong Dose Of Monetary Easing To Boost Economy
  • Units Using Hazardous Chemicals Must Take Insurance
  • Commexes’ Turnover Jumps 17.55% To Rs. 29 Lakh Cr In April-August
  • Pipavav Shipyard Faces Opposition From Vendors Over Dues
  • Gold Continues To Be Highly Productive Portfolio Asset


  • Mahindra Said To Be Close To Purchase Of Pininfarina
  • FII Outflows: India Behind Only Japan, South Korea In Asia
  • Hindalco Says Aluminium Prices Seen Rising Next Year On China Boost
  • Adani’s Deal With Avantha For Korba May Fall Through
  • IVRCL To Sell Rs1,000 Crore Assets To Pare Debt
  • Real Estate Slowdown Takes A Toll On Domestic Steel Industry
  • Sensex Closes 424 Points Up As PM Meets India Inc Over Global Economic Turmoil
  • JSW Energy Buys Jaiprakash Power Assets For Rs 9,700 Cr
  • China Exports Fall 6.1 Per Cent, Import Tumbled By 14.3 Per Cent
  • Swiss Govt Discloses New Name In Black Money Probe
  • India Begins Probe To Impose Safeguard Duty On Steel Imports
  • India Needs To Create Jobs For Rapid Pace Of GDP Growth
  • Three Foreign Funds Eject Before Amtek Auto Crash
  • US Govt Finds No Violations In H1-B Visa Case: Infosys