Indian Agri Market Snapshot:
Markets during the week remain volatile but on specific complex of commodities. Current year summer is expected to be very high and long according to the meteorological department outcome says, which would affect agro commodities. Moreover, April to June is expected to be very hot as compare to the previous years same period, could be seen lower arrivals of commodities and lesser stock values. While on Rabi crop front fresh arrivals and export demand to impact market sentiments accordingly. Last week, IMD outcome shows uncertainty over India monsoon to keep the specific commodities firm on the pricing front. In last quarter from Jan – Mar unexpected rain in some part of country has supported the prices of some commodities while time moves the impact was negligible which has also dragged some prices back to the normal levels which shows that pricings in coming months would move on the news and IMD outcomes but as and when real developments takes place the actual outcome would again play vital role for the pricing as well as physical arrivals in Mandis.
Various commodity agencies expect FY17 or current year 2016 commodities output would be very different from last few years. Last few years typically India has seen lower than expected rainfall which has directly impacted the farmers and rural consumption demand but if the rainfall develops as per expectations or could see better than expected water supply the year would be very fruitful.
Summer Season demand however started to pick which is directly reflecting the prices of seasonal commodities – like Sugar, Lemon and many more has been significant jump in local pricings which is impacting exports numbers adversely.
- Accoridng to the latest data outcome, India exported 42,997 tons of Castor Oil in March 2016, which shows decline in volumes as compared to Feb 2016. China, US and EU were active buyers throughout the year as seed and oil prices continue to rule lower in compare to previous year.
- Sowing Updates: Guar sowing in Gujarat during summer is continuously falling and lacking behind last year’s sowing. According to the recent outcomes, farmers have sown only 3800 hectares of guar seed till March 28th 2016 which is nearly 75% less sowing as compare to sowing done last year same period.
Cumin Seed witnessed high volatility on the NCDEX exchange as well as in physical markets also. Prices remained firm on back of lower arrivals and strong exports demand. In spot market Unjha and Rajkot arrivals were 350 tonnes and 181 tonnes respectively which is lower than previous years same period. Additionally, NCDEX stock positions at accredited warehouse are 1711 tonnes and 246 MT are under process, till date 4th April.
Cumin Seed futures are expected to trade firm or could be said as to remain in positive bias in the near term. Prevailing bullish factors like – Rise in demand, strong export inquiries and quality seeds (high as compare to last two years) may support the price trend positive. However, traders at physical markets expects as and when arrivals increases in mandis prices may limit on the upper end. However, if any liquidation takes place some traders would see that as fresh buying opportunity in the near term.
Prices in local markets remained in the range of Rs 3050 – 3200 per 20 kg during the week as compare to 2800 – 2950 before few weeks.
Prices of soybean during the week remained mixed or could be said as after recent rally prices on the higher levels are consolidating. Soybean may trade flat next week on back of weak export demand and supply worries from United States. On International markets front, prices of soybean were under pressure on higher supply expectations from Brazilian traders on Tuesday raised its forecast of harvest to 99.9 million tons as compared to 99.1 million tons a month ago.
Additionally, bean prices remain under pressure on higher supply after informa raised its Argentine soy crop estimate to 59.5 million tons, from 59.0 million tons previously. We believe supply worries from Argentina will support the bean prices while weak export demand may cap the gains.
Sugar prices remained under pressure during the week after sharp rally seen of nearly 15% in last 2 months. Prices remained under pressure on back of weak export demand and profit booking from investors seen on higher levels. On export front, India the second largest sugar producer has contracted to export 1.6 million tons since began of Oct 1. Government was instrumental persuading mills to agree target of 3.2 million tons of sugar exports in 2015-16.
Since global World food prices rose in March strong rebound in sugar prices, which combined with a further increase in vegetable oil quotations, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United States said in a press release Thursday. The FAO Food Price Index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy, meat and sugar, in March averaged 151 points, nearly 1% higher than February. Last month’s sharp increase mainly reflects the expectation of an even larger production deficit during the current crop year than earlier anticipated, following the recent heavy rainfall in Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer. Reports of higher use of raw sugar for the production of ethanol in Brazil also boosted prices.
Prices remain firms during the week on back of rising demand in local markets and active buying from the stockiest. Coriander prices on NCDEX remained strong during the week ended at the levels of 7156 per tons. On exports front, prices of Eagle quality 5% split traded firmly in the range of 1075 $ to 1120 $ FOB levels which is up by nearly 45 $ or 4% from previous week quotes.
Active buying from end user industries and limited supply of quality produce may support the price to trade high. On the other side, upsurge in arrivals during the ongoing harvesting season may cap gains but prices expected to trade positive in upcoming weeks on back of strong local demand and export trades.