Indian Agri Market Snapshot_Week Ended_April 11,2016

Indian Agri Market Snapshot:

Markets during the week remain volatile but on specific complex of commodities. Current year summer is expected to be very high and long according to the meteorological department outcome says, which would affect agro commodities. Moreover, April to June is expected to be very hot as compare to the previous years same period, could be seen lower arrivals of commodities and lesser stock values. While on Rabi crop front fresh arrivals and export demand to impact market sentiments accordingly.  Last week, IMD outcome shows uncertainty over India monsoon to keep the specific commodities firm on the pricing front. In last quarter from Jan – Mar unexpected rain in some part of country has supported the prices of some commodities while time moves the impact was negligible which has also dragged some prices back to the normal levels which shows that pricings in coming months would move on the news and IMD outcomes but as and when real developments takes place the actual outcome would again play vital role for the pricing as well as physical arrivals in Mandis.

Various commodity agencies expect FY17 or current year 2016 commodities output would be very different from last few years. Last few years typically India has seen lower than expected rainfall which has directly impacted the farmers and rural consumption demand but if the rainfall develops as per expectations or could see better than expected water supply the year would be very fruitful.

Summer Season demand however started to pick which is directly reflecting the prices of seasonal commodities – like Sugar, Lemon and many more has been significant jump in local pricings which is impacting exports numbers adversely.


  1. Accoridng to the latest data outcome, India exported 42,997 tons of Castor Oil in March 2016, which shows decline in volumes as compared to Feb 2016. China, US and EU were active buyers throughout the year as seed and oil prices continue to rule lower in compare to previous year.
  2. Sowing Updates: Guar sowing in Gujarat during summer is continuously falling and lacking behind last year’s sowing. According to the recent outcomes, farmers have sown only 3800 hectares of guar seed till March 28th 2016 which is nearly 75% less sowing as compare to sowing done last year same period.

Cumin Seeds

Cumin Seed witnessed high volatility on the NCDEX exchange as well as in physical markets also. Prices remained firm on back of lower arrivals and strong exports demand. In spot market Unjha and Rajkot arrivals were 350 tonnes and 181 tonnes respectively which is lower than previous years same period. Additionally, NCDEX stock positions at accredited warehouse are 1711 tonnes and 246 MT are under process, till date 4th April.

Cumin Seed futures are expected to trade firm or could be said as to remain in positive bias in the near term. Prevailing bullish factors like – Rise in demand, strong export inquiries and quality seeds (high as compare to last two years) may support the price trend positive. However, traders at physical markets expects as and when arrivals increases in mandis prices may limit on the upper end. However, if any liquidation takes place some traders would see that as fresh buying opportunity in the near term.

Prices in local markets remained in the range of Rs 3050 – 3200 per 20 kg during the week as compare to 2800 – 2950 before few weeks.


Prices of soybean during the week remained mixed or could be said as after recent rally prices on the higher levels are consolidating. Soybean may trade flat next week on back of weak export demand and supply worries from United States. On International markets front, prices of soybean were under pressure on higher supply expectations from Brazilian traders on Tuesday raised its forecast of harvest to 99.9 million tons as compared to 99.1 million tons a month ago.

Additionally, bean prices remain under pressure on higher supply after informa raised its Argentine soy crop estimate to 59.5 million tons, from 59.0 million tons previously. We believe supply worries from Argentina will support the bean prices while weak export demand may cap the gains.


Sugar prices remained under pressure during the week after sharp rally seen of nearly 15% in last 2 months. Prices remained under pressure on back of weak export demand and profit booking from investors seen on higher levels. On export front, India the second largest sugar producer has contracted to export 1.6 million tons since began of Oct 1.  Government was instrumental persuading mills to agree target of 3.2 million tons of sugar exports in 2015-16.

Since global World food prices rose in March strong rebound in sugar prices, which combined with a further increase in vegetable oil quotations, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United States said in a press release Thursday. The FAO Food Price Index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy, meat and sugar, in March averaged 151 points, nearly 1% higher than February.  Last month’s sharp increase mainly reflects the expectation of an even larger production deficit during the current crop year than earlier anticipated, following the recent heavy rainfall in Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer. Reports of higher use of raw sugar for the production of ethanol in Brazil also boosted prices.

Coriander Seeds

Prices remain firms during the week on back of rising demand in local markets and active buying from the stockiest. Coriander prices on NCDEX remained strong during the week ended at the levels of 7156 per tons. On exports front, prices of Eagle quality 5% split traded firmly in the range of 1075 $ to 1120 $ FOB levels which is up by nearly 45 $ or 4% from previous week quotes.

Active buying from end user industries and limited supply of quality produce may support the price to trade high. On the other side, upsurge in arrivals during the ongoing harvesting season may cap gains but prices expected to trade positive in upcoming weeks on back of strong local demand and export trades.




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Indian Agri Market Snapshot_Week Ended_April 02,2016

Indian Agri Market Snapshot:

Financial year and month end March saw the markets were steady and stable on the front of pricing and news outflows. Few physical markets were closed. Volatility was observed during the month, with an expectation of crop failing, unseasonal rain and stockiest demands. However, slight pickup in export demand, summer season and festive demand has push the prices of the few commodities higher while in some of the commodities profit bookings from the higher levels has also been seen.

Meanwhile, we believe the upcoming monsoon updates, crop outcomes and export demand will drive the market trends for specific commodities.


  • According to Senior Official from Meteorological Department – Onset of monsoon rains over India will likely to impact owing to El-Nino. However, according to present forecast by various international weather agencies – El Nino is declining and is expected to be neutral by May end. While we believe if El-Nino diminishes by may end it may impact onset of monsoon in India which starts in early phase of June.
  • IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) is likely to issue its first 2016 monsoon forecast in 3rd week of April, which may be normal as per various parameters available as of now.
  • According to Weather Department – Indian will have another hot period of summer this year, above the normal temperature historically. IMD says there is high probability of 76% maximum temperatures in the core heat wave zone during the year.


Soybean prices has seen volatility during the week but ended on the higher levels of 4119. Prices remain firm in the second half of the March on back of lower planting data outcome from USDA, firm global markets, and strong demand from stockiest in domestic market. Prices rose from the levels of 3800 to the levels of 4100 in the time span of just 15 – 20 working days.

USDA has projected US 2016 soybean planting lower at 82.2 million acres slightly below from the previous 82.7 million acres estimated planting in 2015. While on contrary, soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 728 million bushels, up 19% on yearly basis and off farm stocks at 803 million bushels up 12% from last year same month march.


Market during the week remained firm, as strong demand from local traders and restricted arrivals. According to domestic trader- Rajasthan arrival of Chana may increase in coming days due to start of new financial year and prevailing higher prices. On physical market front – Mandis – Chana is hovering in the range of Rs 4200 – 4400 per quintal with the arrival of 15,000 – 20,000 bags per day.  In coming weeks, prices on the higher levels could see some pressure on back of arrival pressure in major mandis.

According to USDA outcome report – US farmers are planning to plant in large area of Chickpeas due to strong prices and demand, as compared to last year. As per expectations, planting area for small chickpeas to increase by 15% to 83,000 acres and for large chickpeas is expected to grow by 20%.


  1. On Buffer Stock of pulses – HAFED will procure Chana on behalf of NAFED in Haryana. Haryana gram production estimate is around 1.05 lk tonnes and arrivals are expected from Mid April. If prices in physical market decreases or comes around MSP, government intervention to cernment would pay Rs 75 per quintal over and above MSP.
  2. On Carry out stocks – Canadian Chickpeas are expected to fall from 125,000 MT in 2014-15 to 50,000 MT in 2015-16, mainly due to strong exports demand and lower production.


Cotton prices are moving high, rose to over one- month high in late morning trades in Friday, on back of falling output estimates for 2015-16. Fundamentals are bit supportive for uptrend as intensifying concerns over lower production of cotton amid tightening arrivals at major trading centers. Recent outcome of CIA (Cotton Association of India) has further revised its production estimates downwardly to 34.5 million bales as estimated before to 35.3 million bales. Cotton arrivals in current season have declined by more than 11% on year.

Market Movement

All India arrivals reported so far in current season stood at 24.84 million bales as on March 22, according to CCI (Cotton Corporation of India). Meanwhile, US plantation for cotton may stand at 9.562 million acres, up 11.4% as compared to last year. Upland area is estimated at 9.347 million acres, up11% and prima plantings forecast at 215,000 acres up 35.6% from 159,000 acre last year.


Sugar prices across the globe have skyrocketed, prices are trading firmly higher globally on back of lower stocks, summer demand and higher exports. Sugar price on exchange has gains nearly Rs 400 during March and further rise is imminent with pick up in demand for the hot summer season and export demand. Local traders say prices to remain firm in coming months. On retails pricing front prices have risen to Rs 40/kg from the levels of Rs 35/kg in the time span of just one month.

Sugar Consumption during summers remain pretty strong because of increased demand from confectioners, ice cream and aerated water manufacturers. Year of 2015 remains strong for sugar manufacturers on back of strong export demand, strong local demand, and lower stocks. On capital markets front sugar stocks surged in range of 50 – 80% in the time span of just 6 – 9 months.

Market Movement

Sugar market sentiment has changed drastically in last one year on back of lower stocks wherein, estimated export of nearly 1.7 million ton will bring down the carry forward stocks to below 8 million ton from 9 million tons a year before – according to ISMA official said.

According to domestic traders – Since price rise in global markets are showing bullish sentiment, boosting local stockiest confidence to stock the commodity on expectation of further increase in prices. If prices sees some pressure from higher levels stockiest or traders would support the prices from further fall on robust demand domestically and internationally.

Prices have seen sharp upward movement from the levels of Rs 3250 to the levels of Rs 3680 in the time span of just one month March.


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