Currency Insight

EUR/USD drops further to 1.1450

After hitting fresh multi-week tops in the boundaries of 1.1300 the figure overnight, the pair has surrendered part of those gains and has returned to the 1.1250/45 area in response to the mixed preliminary PMIs from France and Germany.

Spot continues to derive support from diminishing market expectations of a Fed’s lift-off in September – now with December as the most likely candidate – following the dovish tone from the FOMC minutes on Wednesday.
On the Greek front, market participants perceive Tsipras stepping down as EUR-supportive as well, as that could facilitate the negotiations with the international creditors. .

GBP/USD: Breakout turns into Fakeout, drops to 1.5650

The spot turned lower from the 7-week high of 1.5819 seen on Tuesday after China’s rate cut pushed the markets into stabilization mode. The USD was ditched on Monday, leading to an upside breakout in the GBP/USD pair from the multi-week range of 1.5460-1.5690 levels.

The focus now shifts to the US durable goods figure for July. The market expects the headline figure to print at -0.4% from June’s 3.4%. However, the markets would be more interested to see if core durable goods have ticked higher .

Pound falls to 2-week lows vs. stronger dollar

The pound fell to two-week lows against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, as expectations for a U.S. rate hike in the coming months continued to lend broad support to the greenback.

GBP/USD hit 1.5385 during European morning trade, the pair’s lowest since May 8; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5415, sliding 0.36%. Cable was likely to find support at 1.5241, the low of May 8 and resistance at 1.5591, the high of May 20. The dollar was boosted after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated Friday that the bank still expects to start raising interest rates later in the year if the economy continues to improve as expected.

 

Important events and their explanation:

 

Time ( IST) Currency Economic Data Actual Expectation Previous
1:30pm EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 4.90% 5.00%
6:00pm USD Prelim GDP q/q 3.20% 2.30%
USD Unemployment Claims 275K 277K
7:30pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m 1.30% -1.80%

Explanation:- After a dramatic last week, Dollar tried to maintain its lost ground. We assume US data’s might meet the street s expectation , hence expect a minor depreciate in the dollar till 1.1520.

Quick Glance :
Instrument Price %Chg Volume OI
USD/INR 66.12 0.17 788526 960103
EUR/INR 75.77 -0.82 37048 48836
GBP/INR 103.54 0.07 21059 41217
JPY/INR 55.42 -0.64 7908 15311
Technical touch :

USDINR pair touched its 2015 lows and fell till 67 levels but soothe after the RBI intervention. As seen weekly chart forming a shooting start pattern, this pattern is running hence we will wait till 66.35 levels. Is pair is able to close near 66.10 levels, . If this happens, USDINR might fall till 65.50 levels.

Currency Insight

Euro pushes higher as dollar rally pauses

The euro pushed higher against the dollar on Wednesday after Greece played down the threat of an imminent default, as the greenback paused following a rally on the back of expectations for a U.S. rate hike later this year. EUR/USD was up 0.41% to 1.0916, still not far from the one-month lows of 1.0862 struck on Tuesday. The single currency found support after the Greek government expressed confidence to that it would make a €305 million payment to the International Monetary Fund due on June 5.

USD/CAD rises to 1-month highs in early trade

The U.S. dollar rose to one-month highs against its Canadian counterpart on Tuesday, after the release of mixed U.S. durable goods orders data, as expectations for a U.S. rate hike in the coming months continued to support. USD/CAD hit 1.2416 during early U.S. trade, the pair’s highest since April 15; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2415, advancing 0.82%. The pair was likely to find support at 1.2275, Monday’s low and resistance at 1.2570, the high of April 15. In a report, the U.S. Commerce Department said that total durable goods orders, which include transportation items, declined by 0.5% last month, compared to expectations for a drop of 0.4%.

Pound falls to 2-week lows vs. stronger dollar

The pound fell to two-week lows against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, as expectations for a U.S. rate hike in the coming months continued to lend broad support to the greenback.

GBP/USD hit 1.5385 during European morning trade, the pair’s lowest since May 8; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5415, sliding 0.36%. Cable was likely to find support at 1.5241, the low of May 8 and resistance at 1.5591, the high of May 20. The dollar was boosted after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated Friday that the bank still expects to start raising interest rates later in the year if the economy continues to improve as expected.
Rupee third on fake foreign currency list in Switzerland!

With Switzerland remaining in focus in India’s fight against black money stashed abroad, the quantum of counterfeit Indian rupee seized by Swiss Police is third highest among all foreign currencies despite a sharp fall from the previous year.

As per the latest ‘counterfeit statistics’ released by the the Federal Office of Police (Fedpol), the total number of counterfeit Indian rupee notes seized during 2014 stood at 181, down from 403 in the previous year.  This is third highest among all foreign currencies after the euro (2,860) and the US dollar (1,101).

Important events and their explanation:
Time ( IST) Currency Economic Data Expectation Previous
 2:00pm GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.20% -0.60%
4:30pm GBP BOE Inflation Report
GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 2-0-7 0-0-9
GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
GBP Asset Purchase Facility 375B 375B
GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement
5:15pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
6:00pm USD Unemployment Claims 273K 267K

Explanation:-  Out of the above events , GBP MPC Rate and US Unemployment are the most crucial one. We assume Britain’s Central bank will maintain status quo and unchanged the rate . Negative for GBP for a shorter term and US Unemployment figures would gonna increase. Negative for dollar and minor positive for INR.

Quick Glance :

 

Instrument Price %Chg Volume OI
USD/INR 64.02 0.17 788526 960103
EUR/INR 69.905 -0.82 37048 48836
GBP/INR 99.92 0.07 21059 41217
JPY/INR 51.32 -0.64 7908 15311
Technical touch :

NSE-CUR USDINR 27AUG2015_Daily_1Year

As seen from the chart, Pair is trading above its crucial levels of 64.00 marks and also trading near its converging trendline. We assume USDINR might formed support 63.90 levels with a positive upside till 64.20 levels.

 

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