Month: February 2018

Morning Business News Round Up_Feb 28, 2018

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Market volatility won’t stop more rate hikes: Fed Chair

Monetisation of road projects can fetch Rs 1.25L cr’

Probe NPAs above Rs 50 cr, alert CBI, PSBs told

World’s biggest wealth fund returned $131b in 2017

Nirav Modi-owned Firestar files for bankruptcy

Dalmia Bharat consortium highest bidder for Binani

Big banks brought stress to the system: RBL Bank

Total foodgrain production estimate hits record 277.49 mn tonnes in 2017-18

Image result for GSTGST revenue collection dips marginally in Jan to Rs 863 bn

Jute industry stares at nearly Rs 8 bn loss on dilution plan

Moody’s upgrades outlook on IDBI Bank to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’

AIIB approves $1.5-bn in loans to India for infrastructure projects

15-day deadline to public sector banks for identifying risks

PNB does not need immediate capital allocation?

No transaction fee on cross-currency derivatives trade for 3 months: NSE

PM woos South Korean investors, assures protection

Andrew Yule to divest engineering division

Banks’ NPA from gem and jewellery sector rises to 30%

PNB fraud: Banks seek forensic audit of Gitanjali Gems

Telecom firms free to match Reliance Jio’s cheap tariffs, rules Trai

GIC to buy minority stake in Prestige’s Exora Business Parks

Creditors may offer to sell Amtek Auto along with subsidiaries

PNB says fraud may cost bank nearly $2 billion

Siemens unit’s IPO value is said to slip toward $32 billion

Arun Jaitley seeks higher funding for India from AIIB to bridge infrastructure gap in Asian region

Comcast challenges Rupert Murdoch with $31 billion offer to buy Sky

PNB Fraud Case: Part of Nirav Modi’s money trail leading to Delaware in US, says ED source

Finally bank credit growth moves into double-digits in Q2

Hindustan Zinc invests Rs 600 cr in 2 new mills

MFI gross loan portfolio up 43%, delinquencies down

Essar Steel auction a labyrinth of complex laws and ambiguities

Govt may double import duty on wheat

Morning Business News Round Up_Feb 27, 2018

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Morning Business News :

  • NCAER pegs India’s 2018-19 economic growth at 7.5%
  • CBI seeks details of nostro transactions from 5 banks
  • DGS seeks HUL response on GST calculation method
  • WhatsApp leaks: HDFC Bank submits report to Sebi
  • Bhushan Steel bid: Liberty makes case before NCLT
  • Services, industrials to lift Q3 GVA print to 6.8%
  • UPI-based system mulled for retail investors in IPOs
  • Rs 11 trillion priority sector lending target achievable: FM
  • SBI Chairman expects PNB to clear Rs 13 bn dues
  • RInfra wins Rs 2.92 bn arbitration with Goa govt over non-payment of dues
  • RIL-BP’s $4 bn plan for developing 3 sets of discoveries in KG-D6 approved
  • Weinstein studio to file for bankruptcy as investors stop funding
  • ACC shelves plans to merge with Ambuja Cement
  • KYC norms for e-wallets made mandatory from March 1

Image result for KYC norms for e-wallets made mandatory from March 1

  • Technology, better supervision needed to tackle banking malpractices: CII
  • Aircel’s woes rise as majority shareholder Maxis decides not to infuse more funds
  • Daiichi-Ranbaxy row: HC orders attachment of Singh brothers’ assets
  • PFC to lend Rs 50,200 cr for UP power projects
  • Indian equities no longer top pick among emerging markets
  • Trai begins consultation to fix service quality norms for LTE calls
  • Anadarko in talks with nine Indian firms to sell gas from Rovuma basin
  • Idea-Vodafone building war chest to take on rivals
  • Kalyan Jewellers looks to file IPO papers in a month
  • BSNL selects Nokia to launch 4G service in 10 circles
  • HG Infra IPO 11% subscription on Day 1
  • 70% IGST refund stuck due to flawed claims filed by exporters: CBEC
  • Vodafone group CEO Vittario Colao terms Trai predatory pricing rule as unfair
  • Govt publishes names of 9,500 high risk non-banking financial companies
  • Grundfos bets big on e-pumps; eyes Rs 1,000 cr turnover from India in 4 years
  • RBI raises currency derivative trade limit to USD 100 mn
  • Hindustan Zinc invests Rs 600 cr in 2 new mills
  • Bank NPAs to rise with new resolution rules
  • Warburg Pincus to sell part stake in Lemon Tree Hotels via IPO
  • Auction by Andhra Bank exposes chinks in banking

Morning Business News Round Up_Feb 26, 2018

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Morning Business News :

  • PNB-wary banks now plan to get solid cover for lone wolf attacks
  • Sebi, bourses probe stock manipulation at PSBs
  • PNB: ED to seek info from over dozen countries on Nirav
  • AP signs MoUs of Rs 1.75L cr, RIL to invest Rs 55K cr
  • COAI says no question of apology to Reliance Jio
  • Taxmen told to go the whole hog for record Rs 10 lakh crore kitty
  • India will soon leapfrog to cutting-edge rail technology’
  • Dr Reddy’s gets EIR, says USFDA maintained OAI status for Srikakulam plant
  • JSW Steel close to acquire Italian firm Aferpi for Rs 6 billion:
  • Essar Shipping plans to double cargo tonnage to 30 MT by 2019-20: CEO
  • Catholic Syrian Bank to increase equity to allow Fairfax on board
  • PNB scam, possible Fed rate hike spur Rs 100 bn FPI sell-off in Feb
  • MSE gets Sebi nod for electronic book building mechanism for online bidding

Image result for MSE gets Sebi nod for electronic book building mechanism for online bidding

  • Jaitley slams regulators’ failure to detect PNB fraud
  • One-page return, staggered filing likely for GST
  • Multinational accounting firms face the heat
  • Bhushan Power bid: NCLT to hear Liberty House plea on Monday
  • Pharma industry told to make use of changing demographics
  • Turkish ground handling co Celebi plans to invest in India
  • ONGC Videsh drops plan to build LNG export facility in Iran
  • Hindustan Zinc to commission 2 new mills at Rs600 cr cost
  • Grasim Industries gets green nod for Rs1,800 crore expansion project
  • SBI set for UK restructuring
  • Europe to shut ABLV Bank at center of a scandal roiling Latvia
  • India may allow only commercial coal mining in the future
  • 70% IGST refund stuck due to flawed claims filed by exporters: CBEC
  • Focus on investment, productivity to lead to sustainable growth rate: Report
  • Huawei unveils world’s first 5G commercial modem
  • Tech Mahindra bets big on 5G services, sets up lab in Bengaluru
  • Wealth of Indian rich equals15% of GDP, poor getting poorer
  • Sebi, SEs look for manipulation in bank derivatives
  • FPIs pull out Rs 10,000 cr from equity market this month
  • CBI files Rs 97 cr loan default case against Simbhaoli Sugars; chairman, Dy MD
  • FinMin, RBI to hold talks on raising FII limit in G-Secs

Markets Sentiment_24.02.2018

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Markets staged a smart comeback from the start of this week. Nifty tested the 10300 level and closed smartly near 10500. Week on week close although flat – sentiment improved owing to Friday rally. Caution is still the word on the street. Small and mid caps continue to under-perform. PNB scam is still being digested as the nation comes to senses after the recent jolt. Banks are still the focus. Sentiment remains soured as far as bulls are concerned. FII is still a regular seller in our markets. DII keeps absorbing the selling.

Technically Nifty is long way away from being safe. This is the longest period in recent past it has failed to re-conquer 50d EMA. 10550 will be key along with its last high 10600. It is nearing the supply zone. Sell on rally will still be the catch word as long as 10600-650 is not covered. On the down side the line of last support clearly stands at 10300-250. Below this further selling can be expected. Starting of the new F&O series has been on the lighter note as well.

Fundamentals have not changed. Some green shots here and there but still market is pricing a growth which has not come. Correction has been deeper in some stocks which may have provided good openings. Over all sense is still overvaluation. At north of 25x PE future returns have not been that great historically. Hence a bit of caution is still advised.

Sector speak – Keep an eye on Pharma stocks. The index has shown good bounce near its last support. Nifty pharma can scale another 5% if the lows of last week hold. As expected NIFTY IT continues to do well. Can see some minor pull back – however is strongest of the lot. Keep an eye on its constituents.

Morning Business News Round Up_Feb 23 , 2018

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Market outlook: Nifty vulnerable below 100-DMA at 10,411 level

Orient Global sells Indiabulls Real Estate shares worth Rs 347 crore

PSBs slip, private peers gain; Vix falls further

Lot of value left in small, midcap IT cos, says Sunil Subramaniam

Sensex can dip to 30,000; PNB scam dents investors’ confidence: Marc Faber

Image result for IDBIIDBI Bank hits 9-month high; up 21% in four days

Apollo Micro surges 16% after hitting lowest level since listing

Ipca Labs hits 52-week high; up 21% in 11 days post Q3 results

Bharat Dynamics, IREDA get SEBI nod for IPO

SEBI to auction 11 assets of Pancard, reserve price 260 cr

GHMC lists its bonds on BSE bond platform

NSE to exclude Fortis Healthcare from derivatives trade if results not filed by 1 March

Gitanjali Gems shares tank over 58% in 7 days

PSU telecom stocks MTNL, ITI jump up to 15% on government’s strategic collaboration plan

Petro cryptocurrency: $141 billion debt-ridden Venezuela’s answer to Bitcoin

Airtel takes on Reliance Jio, promises 250% more data at the same price

RInfra bags Rs 3,647cr contract for thermal power project in TN

Infy declares war with Bansal, makes counter claim of Rs 135 crore

A Rising Rates Cycle

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A Rising Rates Cycle

The down trend line adjoining 1988 top has been broken out indicating big reversal in falling rate cycle. Since hitting an all-time of 15.84 percent in September 1981, the yield on the U.S. 10-year has been steadily declining. The US 10 year Treasury bond yield formed bottom at 1.3180 in July 06, 2016 and touched high of 2.9424 on February 15, 2018. The yield price almost doubled in last 1 ½ years, entering in a phase not seen in 72 years.

Historical analysis suggest that Interest rate cycles are longer, typically stretching 22 to 37 years. This new rate cycle could last at least two decades, introducing a whole new class of investors to rising rates. This meant a lot for all as rise in interest rate would directly or indirectly raise the cost of goods and services. This is might be the first sign of rising inflation on global front which will lead to change in sentiment/ behavior of global financial market. The people likely to reduce exposure in equity market and will move towards bond as real interest rates would be higher.

Hope Still Alive

The correlation between S&P 500 and US 10 year yield remains positive below 4% while concern rises once the yield starts moving above 4.50%. As bond market discounts four rate hikes for 2018, some experts believe the recent development would lead to end of bull market in equity market. With rising interest rate and unwinding of easy liquidities would impact emerging market (EM) equities. The foreign fund likely to move from EM to DM, as real interest would rise along with growth in economy attracts better valuation for their equity as well.

Morning Business News Round Up_Feb 22 , 2018

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Morning Business News :

  • Q3 GDP growth seen at 6.5-7 pc: SBI study
  • Preserve liquidity to pick quality stocks on derivatives expiry day
  • EPFO reduces interest rate to 8.55% for 2017-18, its third straight cut
  • Bajaj Finserv, Grasim and Titan to be part of Nifty 50 index from April 2
  • TCS, Infy, HDFC help Sensex, Nifty end higher after three losing sessions
  • Stock exchanges try to assuage concerns after MSCI warning
  • BSE to launch cross-currency derivatives next week
  • Dollar hits one-week high as focus shifts to Fed; world stocks fall for 3rd day
  • RIL to acquire 5% in Eros International for Rs 1,000 cr

Image result for Eros International

  • NSE 500 cos’ performance too improves in December quarter
  • UP investors summit: RIL to invest Rs10,000 crore over next 3 years, says Mukesh Ambani
  • ONGC short-lists 3 US oil service majors to lift output from two fields
  • Wipro to set up Rs220 crore manufacturing unit in Telangana
  • Sun Pharma shares tank over 8%; biggest drag on Sensex, pharma index today
  • Rupee drops 15 paise, nears 65-mark against US dollar as Sensex trips from day’s high
  • Idea Cellular QIP: Birla group telco fixes issue price at Rs 82.5 to raise Rs 3,500 crore
  • Retail firms outdo market in terms of 10-year return

Morning Business News Round Up_Feb 21 , 2018

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India Inc to invest $1 bn, create 5K new jobs in Canada

EPFO likely to announce 8.65% interest on EPF

Sundaram MF suspended from BSE Star MF

RBI may tighten approvals for offshore borrowing to avoid any defaults

Indian software services growth to remain flat at 7-9% in FY19 too: Nasscom

Deposit Rs 100 million to pay interest to home-buyers: SC to Supertech

Gold falls to Rs 31,700; silver plunges by Rs 535 per kg

Realty, bank stocks pull Sensex down 71 points; Nifty falls to 10,360

Image result for IndiGridMCX Natural Gas bounces from a long-term base

ArcelorMittal, VTB hit snag in pursuit of $6 billion Essar Steel

IndiGrid acquires 3 transmission assets, buys Patran Transmission stake for Rs232 crore

Reliance Jio sparks a face-off between Trai, CCI

Rupee tumbles 58 paise against US dollar, hits the lowest since November 2017

Sensex ends at 33,703; PNB settles in green after 5-day bloodbath, other PSU banks rally up to 5%

Mahindra to discontinue Xylo, Verito, Nuvosport by 2020: 4 new SUVs in addition to New Scorpio, XUV500

Dhaka SE approves China’s bid; rejects India’s offer

RIL to acquire 5% in Eros International for Rs 1,000 cr

PNB fraud exposes holes in RBI supervision, audit

Morning Business News Round Up_Feb 19, 2018

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Glitches in GSTN portal as major concern: Survey

PNB fraud: Shell firms, benami assets under scanner

India moving towards a $5 tn economy: PM

RIL plans Rs 60K cr digital industrial area in Maha

Fortis Healthcare co-owner restrained from selling assets

Related imageSebi may give fresh push to loan default disclosure by listed firms

PNB scam: CBI scans balance sheets of 18 Mehul Choksi’s Gitanjali branches

‘ArcelorMittal’s ineligibility would send wrong signal to global community’

DLF plans to sell ready-to-move-in flats worth Rs 150 bn in next 3-4 years

Nirav Modi scam: Crisil puts Punjab National Bank’s ratings under watch

City Union Bank suffers cyber hack via SWIFT system

FTIL-NSEL merger: Apex court to hear arguments on April 18

Tamil Nadu preparing draft start-up policy

Indian Hotels aims for 8% rise in profits by 2022

Incentives for green tech, AI likely in new industrial policy

PNB-Nirav Modi fraud: Nexus between diamond traders and stock market brokers under scanner

As oil stocks drain, Opec searches for its next fig leaf

Nasdaq Dubai launches Abu Dhabi, Dubai equity index futures

NTPC eyes 100% equity in some JVs with state utilities, stressed assets

Pre-Budget: Goa industries want government to clear stand on mining

Budget not limited to outlay, focus on outcome, says PM Narendra Modi

Retailers accused of levying GST over MRP

Virgin Group, Maharashtra in pact to build Mumbai-Pune hyperloop

Maharashtra govt allows privatisation of cooperative spinning mills

Reliance to invest Rs 60K cr, Virgin to build hyperloop

Markets Weekly Sentiment_17.02.2018

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Markets had a flat week closing wise. There was quite some action during the week price wise. Nifty gave up the 10600 levels very easily to close near last weeks close of 10450 levels. Sentiment is hit across the street. PNB scam has led to an over all pessimism and uncertainty is back. This can be seen with the price action in PNB itself. Players are still not confirmed how deep this scam will be and what skeletons will tumble from the closet. Having said that fear has definitely gripped the market participants. Caution has been over played. Mid and Small caps have resumed their downwards movement.

Technically looking, Nifty did not scale back its 50D EMA around 10600. It chose to fall back from those exact levels. The downward play is open till 10000 should the last lows of 10270 fail to hold. It will be a classic test of recent lows before market is sure what it can hold. If 10300 gives way another slide of 5% cannot be ruled out. On the upside 10600 is the level to watch out for positional traders. 10000 remains the ultimate test. It is also the 50W EMA and 200D EMA. Lot of smart money will be watching these levels in the days and weeks to come.

Fundamentally we have not moved a needle. Although some consolidation is welcomed. Multiples are still stretched beyond historical averages. P/Es still above 25x after topping out at 27-28x in January. Things are still very overvalued and a further fall cannot be ruled out. A black swan can make the pain even more obvious and may hurt sentiment further. Caution is advised.

Sector speak – IT is a smart sector in times of volatility. It can be a good place to hide. Stocks would be relatively stable. NIFTY IT index has corrected and can be poised for a decent upmove. Metals are looking unstable. NIFTY METALS in on shaky grounds. If it does not take out its recent highs the sector will be badly hit. A revisit to 3500 is not ruled out. NIFTY BANK stands at a very critical levels of 25000.  It was the last top to be broken. Some demand is likely to enter – having said that it is a scam struck sector. Catching a falling knife is not advised. Watch for 25000 and how the index behaves around these levels.